DESI DR2 BAO + Planck CamSpec + one supernova compilation, leave-one-tracer-out PSIS cross-validation. Every chain includes all three probes; the selector changes only which supernova compilation enters the joint fit. ΔELPD is written ΛCDM − w0waCDM, so negative means w0waCDM predicts that tracer better. The four lower panels show each model's predictive density for a withheld tracer on a shared axis measured in standard deviations of that tracer's own error, so the measurement always sits at 0 and the panels are comparable.
This figure is dense — scroll it sideways, or open it on a wider screen for the full grid.